It’s a sign of just how far ahead Apple needs to plan iPhone launches that we’re already hearing rumors about theiPhone 18– months before theiPhone 17is out. It’s a lot of work finalizing a smartphone’s design, in no small part because of the need to gauge the market, set priorities, and line up supply and manufacturing. All the more so when a lot of production needs to be moved out of China to cope with a trade war.
For the iPhone 18, however, Apple is reportedly shaking up its traditional schedule. The word from well-connected analystMing-Chi Kuois that only Pro, Air/Slim, andfoldablemodels will ship in fall 2026 – if you want a standard 18, or an 18e, you’ll have to wait until early 2027. If that’s true, it’s bound to upset a lot of people, although it makes unfortunate sense both on an immediate level and in terms of Apple’s corporate philosophy.
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The practical case for staggering the iPhone 18
A tall order (quota)
On the surface, it seems ridiculous that special versions of the iPhone 18 would launch before the default model, never mind pushing the standard one into the following year. I agree with that sentiment, actually, but there is an underlying logic when you consider Apple’s normal production patterns for the past several years. Since the iPhone 12, Apple has shipped four new models every fall, including Pro, Pro Max, and Plus/Mini form factors. That’s a lot to deliver simultaneously, particularly since there aren’t many other models to divert shoppers. Apple doesn’t have the huge catalog of a company like Samsung – if you don’t want one of its fall phones, your only other choices are a lone budget/mid-range model (currently, theiPhone 16e) or last year’s standard and Plus variants.
Four phones is a lot to deliver simultaneously, particularly since there aren’t many other models to divert shoppers.
Excluding the 18 and 18e, Apple will still have four iPhones to deliver in 2026, including two particularly complicated products: the Air/Slim (I’ll just call it the Air) and its first-ever foldable. The latter is a big deal, since Apple is expected to try and disrupt the foldable market with a new approach, for instance minimizing or completely eliminating screen creasing around the hinge. There are bound to be technical hurdles in producing the phone en masse. I’m calling it now, in fact – for the first month or two, the foldable will probably be in extremely short supply. Its launch might even be delayed if the screen or hinge proves too fragile in pre-release testing.
The 18 Air won’t be a first-generation product, given the iPhone 17 Air, but we’re still talking about an ultra-slim device using advanced battery technology. Apple will need to refine the second generation, perhaps by improving battery life or making the chassis even thinner.
Trying to deliver those two products alongside a Pro and Pro Max is going to be a challenge, even with Apple’s global resources. But with all that said, there’s probably a deeper motive for staggering things the way Kuo claims.
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The quiet part
Where Apple’s priorities lie
Executives like Tim Cook rarely say so in public, but Apple’s focus is on “premium” shoppers. The term sometimes comes up in relation to other tech companies, or luxury goods – but in case it’s not obvious, what Apple’s really referring to is selling high-end electronics to people with a lot of disposable income. You’ll certainly see college students, teenagers, and evenyoung kidsusing Apple devices, but the company doesn’t price most of its products for them. It’d much rather attract the person who can drop $1,000 without batting an eye, since that keeps profit margins up.
Putting the most expensive models up front will ensure that they get the most hype, and that buyers wanting in on the latest iPhone generation won’t have a cheaper option to be tempted by.
This priority is evident in Apple’s existing product lineup. Typically, Pro iPhones aren’t just slight upgrades – they’re fundamentally better, meant to nudge you up the price ladder. There’s no telephoto lens at all on the standard iPhone 16, and Apple continues to reserve always-on displays with 120Hz refresh rates for Pros, despite the fact that cheaper Android phones have had those features for years. The standard iPhone 16 feels more like a scaled-back 16 Pro rather than the true baseline – I was surprised when Apple deigned to give it a Camera Control button. Beyond that feature, many people are better off buying a used iPhone 15 Pro – if they can find one. There’s a reason Apple itself only carries the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus outside of refurbished models.
Assuming Kuo is right, putting the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, Air, and foldable up front will ensure that they get the most hype, and that buyers wanting in on the latest iPhone generation won’t have a cheaper option to be tempted by unless they have no choice, and/or they’re willing to wait. Apple might even be able to capture some Christmas sales, although personally, I’ve never met anyone who bought their partner a Pro for the holidays, much less a $2,000-plus folding phone. Those people must be out there.
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Some final thoughts
I get the business case, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that postponing the cheaper iPhone 18 models is somewhat disrespectful. Most people can’t justify a $1,000 phone, after all – the difference with a cheaper one is money that might be better spent on rent, groceries, education, or saving up for a house or car. Intended or not, the message seems to be that if you’re not a high roller, you’ll have to wait in line to get any of the latest tech, let alone the best.
I do think Apple’s priorities are worth pointing out, since they force us to think about the company’s relationship to us, and vice versa.
Is this a big deal, in the end? I suppose not. Waiting five or six months longer for a new iPhone isn’t going to kill anyone. Some people, even those with a lot of cash, will hold onto a phone as long as possible on general principles. But I do think Apple’s priorities are worth pointing out, since they force us to think about the company’s relationship to us, and vice versa.
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